Reform UK and Labour face a straight race to win the next General Election, according to a new MRP poll, though support for Nigel Farage's party is waning significantly in the West Midlands and Warwickshire.

In the latest research from Electoral Calculus, conducted on behalf of national communications agency PLMR, voters were asked which party they would choose were they to vote in a General Election tomorrow. In this context, both Reform and Labour, the latter buoyed by Andy Burnham's expected ascent to Prime Minster, are forecast to win 22 per cent of the national vote.

The Conservatives are predicted to win 18 per cent of the vote, with the Green Party fourth on 15 per cent and the Liberal Democrats fifth with 11 per cent.

Labour is predicted to win 217 seats, leaving it 109 seats short of an overall majority, while the Conservatives are set to win 151 seats and Reform 127. The Liberal Democrats would win 72 seats, the Greens 30 seats, the SNP 28 seats and Plaid Cymru three seats.

Based on these numbers, if a general election were held now the most likely outcome would be a hung parliament. There would be no credible two-party coalition, and even a potential three-way coalition between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens would be seven seats short of an overall majority.

After a string of eye-catching wins in the May local elections, the findings of the poll will surely come as a blow to Reform, which can attribute some of its loss in momentum to the emergence of right-wing challengers such as Restore Britain, which is predicted to win Seven per cent of the vote.

Reform's national vote share is down from the 31 per cent predicted in Electoral Calculus' January poll and the party has also suffered a setback in the West Midlands, where it was once forecast to deliver close to a clean sweep of the constituencies.

In June last year, Reform was tracking to win 35 of the 39 parliamentary seats in Birmingham, the Black Country, Solihull, Coventry, Warwickshire and Worcestershire. Reform remains the best supported party in the region, but its share of the vote has dropped to 23 per cent, with Labour closing on 20 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 per cent, the Greens 17 per cent, Restore Britain nine per cent and the Liberal Democrats set to win eight per cent.

Commenting on the findings, Rebecca Langton, PLMR Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said: "Just a few months ago, Reform looked to be on course for a political breakthrough.

"This polling suggests that momentum has stalled, and Andy Burnham's expected arrival in Downing Street has breathed fresh life into Labour's prospects, setting up what now looks like a genuine two-horse race for the next General Election.

"While the national picture remains finely balanced and a hung Parliament is still the most likely outcome, Starmer's departure could prove to be a watershed moment for this Parliamentary term.

"Andy Burnham has made his name as a champion of devolution and of shifting power away from Westminster. Regional leaders, local authorities and businesses across the West Midlands will be watching closely to see whether that philosophy translates into a renewed programme of devolution, greater local decision-making and more investment in the places that have too often felt overlooked."

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "Our figures show that if a general election were held now, it would result in a hung parliament where even a three-way coalition of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens would fall short of a majority.

"For the first time, Restore Britain has been included in our polling, and they are cutting directly into Reform's vote share. That leaves Nigel Farage fighting on two fronts, with the Conservatives also recovering ground.

"Meanwhile, Burnham's return to Westminster has given Labour a boost, but only time will tell if he can persuade a pessimistic public that another spin of No 10's revolving door will deliver progress, or if it will just leave the country going in circles."