An independent councillor expects the political balance to shift in Warwickshire County Council's elections – even if there is no change at the top. 

Cllr Judy Falp has served at Shire Hall for the past eight years, all of which have been under Conservative control. 

With less than a month to go before local elections, the Tories hold a significant majority – 42 out of the county's 57 seats – following a landslide success in 2021.

Political winds have blown in different directions since, in Warwickshire and nationally, with the Conservatives losing the leadership of Warwick and Stratford-on-Avon district and Rugby and Nuneaton & Bedworth borough councils over the past couple of years. 

Labour swept to a sizeable majority in the Houses of Parliament last year but did not enjoy much of a grace period with a range of policies proving divisive, leading Cllr Falp to believe there will not be any party that jets off with big numbers this time. 

"In a way I hope there isn't," she said.

"It has been very difficult to influence things in the eight years that I have been here because of the very big majority.

"A hung council (where no party has more than half of the seats) would be very difficult, it makes it harder to get things done, whereas a smaller majority gives a greater opportunity for everyone to have a say – you have to listen to everyone if you have a small majority. 

"I don't know what colour it will be (leading) but I think it will be a very different council made up of lots of different parties."

How long the new cohort will serve remains to be seen with the spectre of local government reorganisation looming large.

The national government has asked all two-tier council areas – places like Warwickshire that have services split over a county council, then district and borough councils – to draw up plans for unitary authorities that will see all services dealt with under a single level. The aim is to abolish all the current councils and form the new ones by 2028.

There continues to be plenty of political back and forth over how to implement the plans and a lot of logistics to work through, prompting mixed feelings about the change Warwickshire's elections will bring. 

Irrespective of how the votes go, senior cabinet figures such as deputy leader Peter Butlin, education lead Kam Kaur and adult social care and health lead Margaret Bell are not seeking re-election, while the vastly experienced Bill Gifford will no longer be on the opposition benches having opted not to stand.

"I looked across the chamber at the last council meeting and thought about just how much experience we are losing this year, at a time when we need a lot of it," said Cllr Falp.

"I am concerned about losing that experience but that is what democracy is about and new ideas are good. 

"People have the right to have a say every four years and I have always been a big believer in that, which was why I never wanted the elections to be delayed (to accelerate local government reform). A lot are going because they want to step down, others don't think they will get re-elected.

"Some newcomers arrive with some fantastic ideas so it is nothing to be frightened of but you need that experience as well. It takes a new councillor a while to fully understand what you can and cannot do. 

"You may be fantastic in your work or business life but it doesn't always translate, local government is nothing like any other business I've ever known. There is an opportunity but there is also that threat."

National politics often influences results but Cllr Falp stressed the importance of residents remembering what they are voting for. 

"It is important we keep it to local issues," she said. 

"There is a lot going on nationally, the blame game, but it is about how whoever you put in will help locally – what are your local issues and who do you think is best placed to help you with them?

"It could be the sitting councillor if you think they have done okay, if not then it is a case of who else might, but keep it local." 

As for the outcome, Cllr Falp has little trust in any crystal balls. 

"I'd say it is 50-50 whether it is a small majority or a hung council because of the national party politics," she said. 

"I was surprised by Warwick District Council's results two years ago (when a Green-Labour coalition took power from the Conservatives) and I think I will be surprised by this one – the only bit that won't surprise anyone is that there will be big change."