Warwickshire County Council has confirmed the process for Tuesday's crunch leadership battle with rival parties remaining coy on plans to back or challenge the Reform UK administration.

The council, Warwickshire's collective of 57 elected representatives, is the only body which can select a leader, a process made tricky by the fact that no political party has a majority – more than half – of the seats. 

Once in, the leader has complete discretion over which councillors form the cabinet, the panel of elected officials that takes charge of major service areas, and therefore the political administration that will take most of the decisions on the running of the council.

How it will work

The council has confirmed that the leader will require half-plus-one of the votes cast, and crucially not half-plus-one of the councillors eligible to vote. 

While all 57 could turn up and vote for or against a leader, Warwickshire County Council has said that those who cannot be there or abstain – choose not to vote either way on a candidate – will not count.

That brings down the overall number of votes and therefore the number required for any leader to get in. 

For example, if three councillors could not attend the meeting and a further nine councillors chose to abstain, there would only be 45 votes for or against, meaning any new leader would require 23 to get past the post. 

While highly unlikely, particularly as Reform UK has stated its wish to remain in office, there is no lower limit – if just three councillors chose to vote on the day, two votes would be enough for a leader to get in.

In the event of a tie, Reform UK would have the upper hand with one of its members Cllr Edward Harris chairing the council and having the casting vote.

The process of the vote will depend on how many candidates are put forward. Any councillor can join the race with the backing of just two councillors and it is unknown at this stage whether interim leader Cllr George Finch, recently voted in as Reform UK's permanent group leader, will face any challengers.

If there is more than one candidate, it is likely that councillors will be asked for their selection. If that ballot does not throw up an outright winner, the candidate with the lowest number of votes drops out with councillors asked to vote again until someone gets to half-plus-one.

It is possible that once a candidate drops out, their backers may then abstain, further reducing the number of votes required to win and making it easier for someone to get over the line without going so far as to back them into office.

Reform UK could start with up to 23 votes – their 22 councillors plus independent Councillor Luke Shingler who initially stood for Reform only to realise he could not represent any political party due to the nature of his work.

With the meeting falling in the first week of the school holidays and the potential for abstentions, they appear close to the winning line.

Tight-lipped rivals and the delicate balance they create…

The Liberal Democrats form the second largest party (14 seats) and group leader Councillor Jerry Roodhouse is respected across the chamber, having served for more than 30 years.

He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service that his group is due to meet on Friday (July 18) to map out a course of action, declining to comment on whether he would stand for the top job or whether his group would consider abstaining.

The Lib Dems called out the Conservatives for backing Reform UK into office last time. Tory leader Cllr Adrian Warwick defended that stance, arguing that Reform warranted the first crack at running the show having got more votes than anyone else.

He is just as tightlipped this time around, confirming only that his group is also set to meet on Friday to develop their strategy. 

It is worth noting that bar the Lib Dems, any other political group suggesting a leader would probably need a formal coalition rather than one-off backing due to have less than 10 councillors. The current Reform UK administration has nine cabinet posts and the Tories had 10 before that, and each has places to fill on panels such as scrutiny committees and external bodies.

The Conservatives are seen as the kingmakers. With nine seats, they have enough to put Reform UK back in, bump up any mass vote against or to significantly bring down the total required for a winner by abstaining. 

It is also a possibility that they will be granted a free vote, meaning each Tory councillor can vote as they see fit and potentially sway the numbers in a crucial way. It also remains to be seen whether Reform's public vilification of chief executive Monica Fogarty over refusing to take down the Progress Pride flag will alter their thinking, individually or collectively. 

The Conservative decision is made all the more important by the likelihood that the Lib Dems, Green Party (seven seats), Labour (three seats) and the only non-aligned councillor Judy Falp are, like last time, unlikely to support Reform UK. If every one of those councillors attends and votes, they would muster a total of 25 votes against but absences are likely to dent that number.

Green group leader Jonathan Chilvers declined to comment on whether he would seek to form any alliances or stand for the top job. He also didn't rule in or out the use of abstentions but appeared to advocate a cross-party approach. 

"Reform is the largest party but let's be clear, they don't have a majority and to elect a leader you need a majority," he said.

"The best administrations are the ones that make sure they represent a majority of the councillors." 

Labour leader Cllr Sarah Feeney went a little further by saying she "would probably consider it unlikely" that her group's trio of councillors would back Reform but stressed it would be a joint decision taken over the weekend. 

She did not rule in or out abstentions but played down the prospect of leading any coalition, acknowledging it would be "highly unlikely that other parties would accept a Labour leader".

"We haven't had those discussions with other parties at the minute, not formally or in any way that would be meaningful in among all the hypothetical conversations that inevitably go on," she said. 

Perhaps the most democratic idea came from Cllr Falp who made the case for a cross-party administration, including Reform UK, being formed on the basis of the proportion of seats won.

"For the good of Warwickshire and its residents, I just want all the parties to get together to work something out," she said.