Unemployment in Warwickshire nudged above the national average in the latest regional figures with professionals expecting the rate to get worse. 

Data provided to Warwickshire County Council's communities overview and scrutiny committee this week showed that unemployment had gone up from 4.2 per cent to 4.4 per cent between June and September 2025. 

That September position was a smidge higher than the national average of 4.3 per cent and while it compared favourably with a West Midlands figure of 5.4 per cent, a report from the county council's head of economy and skills Isobel Woods warned of bad omens on the horizon.

She cited a perfect storm of falling employment levels, increased redundancies and reduced hiring nationally that is "expected to feed into Warwickshire's data as more up‑to‑date local figures are released, pushing our rate higher in the coming months".

It adds: "Young people are likely to be hit hardest, as under‑25s already experience the highest unemployment and (benefit) claimant rates both locally and nationally."

Nationally, payrolled employees have fallen by 134,000 (0.4 per cent) year-on-year with redundancies 20 per cent higher at the end of 2025. Vacancy rates have fallen in the past three months but remain slightly up on this time last year. 

Ms Woods told the scrutiny panel: "There is a mixture of elements at play. 

"We are seeing employers being more cautious, we are seeing inflation and interest rates, rising costs, and we are seeing uncertainty across markets. 

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"There are fewer vacancies when people are leaving work. There is also increased competition which is starting to affect graduates and apprenticeships. 

"It is a position that we are continuing to monitor."

There are positives with the county council continuing to aid employers with things such as sustainable energy grants and business support and it is reported that interest in inward investment is up.

"We are pleased to say we are seeing an increase in enquiries coming into Warwickshire, particularly around India and China," said Ms Woods who went on to reference "significant property investment" by Aura in Leamington Spa, where Meta are tenants, and the Ricardo campus in Radford Semele.

Panel chair Cllr Jan Matecki queried whether any of the issues were specific to Warwickshire.

Ms Woods replied: "It feels more of a national trend. We have been talking to businesses in Warwickshire who have articulated what we are hearing from other areas around the country.

"The national insurance, the level of inflation, managing whether they are going to replace people and people aren't moving on so the vacancies are just reducing. It is a collection of a number of issues that we are seeing with business decisions and wider economy and policy things.

"It varies according to sector. We know there are more challenges around the hospitality sector, businesses are trying to ensure they are sustainable, and what we are seeing in other sectors is about whether they have the skills and talent coming in.

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"We are seeing people staying in work a lot longer as well so it seems to be a combination of factors."

Cllr Matecki replied: "It is not good news to see unemployment going up but encouragingly, it is not anything this county is doing wrong.

"That is the only positive sign, if you can take a positive from it."