Proposed national reforms could require the districts of Stratford-on-Avon and Warwick to find room for 30 per cent more new homes than anticipated.

District councillors from both patches were presented with the stark figures during an update on the emerging South Warwickshire Local Plan (SWLP) with the leading officers of both authorities agreeing that new government proposals threaten to "drive a coach and horses" through the work done so far. 

The SWLP will set out how new housing is catered for and plan for where it will go through to 2050, bringing together two areas that currently have their own local plans. 

It has been three years in the making so far and is not set to be finalised until December 2027 with officers currently in the process of nailing down housing numbers. 

How things stand

Stratford-on-Avon District Council is currently committed to 730 homes per year with Warwick District Council's figure much higher, 1,098.

Both councils have a five-year land supply, meaning they can demonstrate they currently have enough land allocated to meet the needs of their most recent plans, helping to protect against any unwanted applications to build on sites that have not been set aside. 

Since those calculations were done, it has been established that overspill needs from Coventry were overestimated and both districts had been geared towards following the advice from a Housing & Economic Development Needs Assessment (HEDNA) conducted for the wider area, which factored in the most up-to-date information on housing but also employment land and population data.

The joint plan has been working towards 868 new homes per year in Stratford district and 811 per year in Warwick district, a fair amount above the current minimum totted up through the national standard method.

What changed?

Labour's new government has launched a consultation on changes to national planning policies, aiming to speed up house building with a focus on affordable homes.

The new method would be based on current housing stock levels rather than future projections of need in the hope of creating more stable growth across populated areas. 

The knock-on effect drives down the targets for bigger city areas like Coventry and Birmingham but pushes up the figure across the SWLP patch to 2,178 homes per year – 1,098 across Stratford district and 1,080 across Warwick district – which is 499 more than the two councils had been working to.

Reaction

Cllr George Cowcher, Stratford-on-Avon District Council's deputy leader and portfolio holder for planning and economic development said: "In terms of our Stratford population, we don't need to provide additional housing, all the growth is to do with inward migration and I think it is really important people are aware of that."

Leader of the opposition at Stratford Councillor Sarah Whalley-Hoggins described the figures as "staggering" and questioned whether a fresh call for sites would be required.

Stratford's head of development John Careford replied: "We need to do the number crunching to see what's available, what impact this increase in housing would have.

"I think the key point is that we are not being driven by the call for sites, we are trying to come up with a strategy that we think, as two councils, is the right and sustainable approach. The idea is then to fit that with the call for sites to make sure it is deliverable.

"We haven't finished that work so I can't give you an answer. If it were to transpire that we did have a shortfall of land then I would suggest we would need a further call for sites but it could be that enough land has been suggested to make the strategy work, it is going to have to be a wait to see on that one."

Warwick's councillors also expressed concerns but cast doubt on whether the national proposals will stay as they are. 

Cllr Ian Davison, leader of Warwick District Council, said: "It is not definite.

"My personal view is that you could say the Labour party is being brave, they are going from around 200,000 new homes per year to around 350,000.

"We all know locally with HS2, (it was said to be a) great idea, won't cost very much, but once a massive amount of building starts, prices rocket. If house building genuinely rockets to 350,000 per year the prices will absolutely rocket in terms of construction, technical people and so on. 

"Then you need lots of people with lots of money to buy the houses, and we know that developers don't develop if the house prices and therefore the profits fall. 

"I think it is extremely brave. Whether they will carry on like that or not, we don't know."

Cllr Judy Falp built on the point about viability.

"The idea sounds fantastic but I have grave reservations that it is not going to happen," she said.

"It is a great aspiration but are we going to be faced with more and more viability claims from developers?"

What now?

Councillors for both areas agreed to allow officers – the employed professionals at the councils – to continue work on the preferred options based of the numbers set out in the HEDNA, albeit with "an element of flexibility", noting that any new standard method "would require very many more homes across South Warwickshire". 

The government's consultation on its potential changes to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) concludes on September 24.

A public consultation is due on the SWLP's preferred options in November 2024.