A new national MRP poll has revealed a "striking gap" in political awareness at local level, alongside signs that Reform UK's rapid rise is stalling.

The latest research from Electoral Calculus, conducted on behalf of national communications agency PLMR, found that less than half of voters (46 per cent) can correctly identify which party runs their local council, while nearly a third (30 per cent) say they do not know.

This lack of awareness is linked to national voting patterns. Reform UK and Conservative supporters are less likely to know who runs their local council than Labour and Green party supporters by 53 per cent to 61 per cent.

At national level, Reform UK remains the largest party with 24 per cent of the vote, but support has fallen back from its recent peak, indicating the party may be hitting its ceiling.

The Conservatives have recovered to 21 per cent, narrowing the gap, while Labour sits on 17 per cent.

Despite leading the vote, Reform is still short of a majority, projected to win 188 seats – down from 335 in January. This is followed by the Conservatives on 159 seats and Labour on just 86 seats.

This would indicate the UK is heading towards a hung parliament, led by a Reform–Conservative coalition.

On the left, the vote remains tightly split, with Labour and the Greens competing closely for support. The Greens are projected to win 71 seats, highlighting the continued fragmentation of the progressive vote and its impact on Labour's ability to convert support into seats.

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At the same time, Reform's momentum is also being stalled by the emergence of newer right-wing challengers such as Restore Britain. This suggests that similar fragmentation on the right is beginning to dilute Reform's support base, just like Farage's initial surge did to the Conservatives.

Reform's support has tailed off dramatically in the West Midlands. In June last year, Nigel Farage's party was forecast to win a staggering 35 of the 39 parliamentary seats across Birmingham, the Black Country, Solihull, Coventry, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.

That number has almost halved to 19 seats with the Green Party now making moves, picking up four projected seats across the region.

Commenting on the findings, Rebecca Langton, PLMR Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said: "While national politics often dominates the headlines, these findings show there is still a significant disconnect when it comes to understanding local government.

"Councils make decisions every day on the services people rely on most - from roads and housing to waste collection and social care - yet too many voters remain unclear about who is actually in charge. That presents a real challenge for local democracy as we head into the May elections.

"In the West Midlands, where communities are facing major questions around regeneration, transport, skills and growth, informed local leadership has never been more important.

"When voters feel disconnected from local politics, it creates space for frustration and protest voting, rather than meaningful debate about the choices facing towns and cities across our region. Strong engagement between councils, residents and businesses will be essential in the months ahead.

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"The polling also suggests that while Reform UK has made significant gains, its momentum may be beginning to level off – including here in the West Midlands.

"That underlines how fluid the political landscape remains, with voters still weighing up their options. For all parties, the lesson is clear: trust cannot be taken for granted, and those that communicate clearly, deliver visibly and stay focused on local priorities will be best placed to earn support."