The politician in charge of Warwickshire County Council's finances still harbours hopes of avoiding a maximum increase in council tax despite national government "blackmailing" local authorities.

Cllr Stephen Shaw ruled out a council tax freeze but expressed his desire to make rises "a bit lower" than the five per cent per year currently being assumed in the county council's five-year financial projections. 

Warwickshire County Council has budgeted for bringing in £413.3 million in council tax across the financial year 2025-26, representing just under half of its gross income. 

Based on projected need and expected funding allocations from national government, the county has for some time now built in the assumption that councillors will put up the county's portion of the bill – by far the biggest element due to the expensive social care and education duties it has – by the statutory maximum of three per cent per year, plus another two per cent for the adult social care levy. 

One percent of council tax, when accounting for an increase in housing over those five years, is somewhere in the region of £4.5 million every year. If councillors opt not to take the full increase then that not only brings down the amount year on year but it also chips away at the amount brought if there is a return to maximum rises in future years.

For example, if the council tax rise was limited to four per cent next year but put back up to five per cent each year after that, the council misses out on the £4.5 million on an ongoing basis, plus five per cent of that – £225,000 the next year and more thereafter – every time it puts up future bills. 

A county report to cabinet – the panel of Reform UK councillors in charge of major service areas – on ensuring the books balance also highlighted that "the government's settlement funding assessment will have reduced grant funding on the basis that council tax will have been increased", essentially refusing to plug any gaps for councils that do not maximise their own revenue streams. 

Cllr Shaw acknowledged that put Reform and their desire to halt or limit tax rises in a tricky position. 

At a county council press conference held last week, he said: "We can't just cut it to zero and say 'stuff that, let the council get into loads of debt', we have to do it in a business-like way. 

"If it has to go up by five per cent, it is what it is at the moment. We are not guaranteeing that, we have to go through all the figures, all the statutory and non-statutory stuff, work through the Value for Money programme and then around December see what it looks like.

"The government wants us to take five per cent or it will cut the grants out, we cannot put a financial risk on the council. That's the main thing."

Asked when he would know more about the prospect of limiting rises in future years, Cllr Shaw anticipates answers coming forward in the "next six to eight months" but admits: "We will not get a council tax freeze, that can't happen with the way the finances are at the moment with inflation going up, SEND (special educational needs and disabilities) costs and things like that going up.

"We don't want to hit five per cent. We want to hit it a bit lower than that. Financially, Warwickshire is in a pretty good place compared with other councils so we have a bit of movement on that. Others cannot do that."

Addressing his frustrations on the system, he argued government is "blackmailing" councils and that "it shouldn't be happening". 

"They should be supporting councils, not saying 'you have to take this and if you don't then you won't get that'. It shouldn't work like that, they should be supporting the people of Warwickshire to give us the best deal they can for the future," he said.

Leader Cllr George Finch (Reform UK, Bedworth Central) noted how Warwickshire had been one of the last councils to utilise the statutory override on SEND spending, a mechanism that allows overspends to be ringfenced so money isn't taken from other services, and praised the finance department.

"County councils have not been getting their fair share of funding from the national government. That is because of previous governments and the one we have now," he said.

Put to him that government cash is also public money and that the nation is carrying the burden of debt, Cllr Finch replied: "It is an easy answer, where is national going to get its money from? Stop spending millions on mad Miliband's policies. Net zero, scrap it, you don't need to do that.

"The amount of money we put into housing asylum seekers and illegal immigration, that is one of the biggest problems we are seeing on a day-to-day basis.

"EDI (equality, diversity and inclusion) is in loads of national departments, there is so much money to be saved, they just have to look at it through a lens of what people actually need and what they think they need – there is a difference. 

"We have to make sure we are spending every penny under the eye of proper scrutiny." 

Asked what Warwickshire's spend on net zero and EDI is, Cllr Finch referenced a freedom of information request submitted by Reform UK which showed spending of £400,000 per year on EDI "initiatives, jobs, training and so on".

"The problem is that we are signed up to these things by national government," he added.

"It is a statutory requirement to X amount of EDI or net zero. We might not be able to scrap it completely but we may be able to reduce it to the bare minimum to ensure that money can be put elsewhere towards the priorities we think Warwickshire needs at the moment, not what they fantasise (about)."